Eastern Conference:
1) Sixers - The length and defense of the top 6-7 guys on this team is un-paralleled in recent NBA memory. Because of that, they should really handle lower tier Eastern teams with ease and cruise to 15-20 of their total W’s. Horford being able to spell the Embiid bench minutes is huge. The effectiveness of forcing Simmons out of the paint and loss of any perimeter threat is a huge concern come playoff time, particularly with loss of Redick, but shouldn’t stop them from bullying through the regular season.
2) Bucks - Not sure if it’s just my FIBA hangover, but Giannis, Middleton and Brook all looked a step off and scared me. But, none of them really cared, so...shouldn't put too much stock in it. I fear dismissing Giannis and his lack of perimeter game, since his inside dominance is bested only by prime time Shaq and a select few others. I don't think the roster we see now will be the roster come playoff time and they are as set up as anyone to make a deep finals run.
3) Celtics - Higher on this team than most. Lost in the Kyrie is a kook conversation was the scowl of Rozier. I think Celtics are better off without both players and letting Stevens really run his program to a T. This season would be the year Hayward could capture some of his Jazz consistency and fire. Most of the season really depends on development of Tatum, and now the heavily compensated Jaylen Brown, and if we’re looking at a franchise builders or good, complementary pieces.
4) Raptors - 17-5 without Kawhi last season is a telling story. It's a well coached team with players who know how to win. Locked up Siakam and Lowry as core pieces over next couple seasons, avoiding trade rumors and media maneuvering. But, they lost arguably the best player in the NBA and can’t recover to finals glory. Also lost some depth on the back end with last seasons trade deadline moves, but add a promising OG Anunoby after missing most of last season.
5) Miami - Watch this team beat up the bulk of the East. Remember what Jimmy Butler does when it’s his show, putting up 24/6/5 as his last year in Chicago as focal point. Whiteside, while still having upside, was dragging that crew down and Bam is a spark plug replacement with far more versatility. Tyler Herro looks great and could be in the new famed class of guards picked 13th in the draft (Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell) will show himself as top steal of draft. Like them to make noise in the East and advance a round or two.
6) Brooklyn - Of course hard to have an unbiased opinion of my squad, but lost in the Kyrie/KD shuffle was the returning core of young talent and new pieces to fortify depth. LaVert is now being paid as a 3rd piece, and if health maintains could be the impact player he was first half of last season. Dinwiddie is a great court and clubhouse complement to Kyrie while Jared Allen keeps taking steps to be a legit 30+ minute a night starter. Then bring in hard headed and defensive pros like Garrett Temple and David Nwaba and make sneaky trade for Taurean Prince, who I imagine they’ll use as a stretch 4 in most sets. This is now a team with a playoff core and pedigree, and even though still one KD away from being contenders, I imagine this season to be a strong step in that direction.
7) Magic - Statistically, no team played better defense in second half of the season than Orlando. With the bottom of their division being filled with walkover teams, they could cruise to a handful of victories holding opponents to around 80 points. This should create a bevy of regular season wins. They also have returning continuity and the development of Isaac and Bamba as real impact rotation players. Can’t see much in the playoffs but I imagine a return to the playoffs.
8) Chicago - Returning a number of promising young players in Lavine and Maarkanen, adding Thad Young to the interior and Satoranksy to finally have a steady presence in the PG spot, which effectively should diminish Dunn to a bench player. I think they’ll be right there at the end. The X factor could be health and productivity of Wendell Carter, but some of these players have real moxy and I think they sneak into bottom of the East with 39-41 wins.
9) Pacers - As much as like some of the players on this team, the uncertainty of Oladipo, the analytic conundrum that is playing Sabonis and Turner together and trying to work in Lamb, Brogdon and Warren as the major source of perimeter offense will be seriously challenging. I expect a big jump from my man Aaron Holiday, but I foresee a couple poor stretches in the season that knock the Pacers just below the 8 seed.
10) Detroit - Second year with Casey and strongest front court in East. But, I hate this roster. They are constantly one Blake injury away from being the team that simply couldn’t compete in last years playoffs. I don’t trust Kennard to take the step they would like him to, missed out on impact rookie and signed Rose, who will sure up bench but doesn’t bring enough. To the lottery for Motown. My hope is they compete enough towards the end to not destroy Drummond’s season, who I drafted in most of my fantasy leagues.
11) Hawks - Young and Collins should be a lot of fun to watch this year, mixed with some interesting pieces up and down the lineup. But loss of Dedmon and the lack of interior presence and defense should keep them a half dozen wins from the playoffs still. Could be borderline must watch basketball, but playoff jump still at least a year away.
12) Knicks - I’m intrigued by a few of the Knicks young pieces (Robinson, Knox, Barrett) and think Fizdale is a solid coach. I hate the roster construction and am baffled by a couple of the moves, trade chips or not. I just hope the Kristaps media backlash won’t put Knicks fans in a “fire Fizdale” frenzy, it’s just simply not his fault. Most you can hope for is strong showings by the kids and potentially, Dennis Smith Jr putting it together and showing if he’s a starter in this league or not.
13) Wizards - Bradley Beal and….and...Thomas Bryant (yeah) only other player who excites me at all, even the last two seasons of draft picks are underwhelming. I imagine the only part of this Beal re-signing plan is pairing himself, a healthy Wall and a top 3 draft pick together next season. This season is a wash. Draft Beal in fantasy, especially without percentages.
14) Cavs - Yeah, this is gonna be bad. I assume Love will play in active spurts, with periodic rest to try and entice some sort of return. This is nothing but a season to see what you have in Garland and Sexton and play for another draft.
15) Hornets - Bad, could be historically bad team. Only team in NBA that doesn’t feature a top 100 player, and your two best players are on bloated and unmanageable contracts. Bridges, Monk, Washington are fine, but none excite me as an impact player. Blah.
Western Conference:
1) Nuggets - As a regular season ranking this is team to beat for the #1 seed. Jokic in MVP form, Murray blossoming, returning continuity, full health, additions of Grant and Porter and one of the best home court advantages in NBA. With the injury troubles and new player chemistry components of the other top Western teams, Nugs could easily finish with best record in conference.
2) Rockets - Biggest knock on Rockets offense is its predictability and boring style run through Harden, albeit very successful. Here comes Russ, the human tornado, in this context I mean it in a good way. If he doesn’t shoot them out of games with 5+ 3pt attempts, he’s the perfect spark plug on a broken offense or a well defended set. Harden has never had a Rockets teammate you can hand the ball to and confidently watch it play out. High probability for troubles with the looming China situation and D’Antoni not extending his deal.
3) Clippers - PG iffy for first 6 weeks. Even with Kawhi claiming full health, can’t see him playing all back to backs, particularly against very weak or, as last season, potential playoff match ups. Also factoring in new chemistry, it might start slow but can’t pace too much cause of competitive west. This team is built for February and March and I imagine we won't see their full complement or parts and play until then.
4) Jazz - Love their off season moves and coaching, but…this team is small. They’ll put up wins and be right there in the heart of the western race, but when push comes to shove, I think this team gets bullied around. Envision a series against a healthy Clippers team, who is covering Kawhi and PG on this team? I’ll wait. And a small sample size of the leagues worst preseason defense. Conley one of my fave players in NBA, but they won’t have huge success.
5) Lakers - I have bought into the pre-season, it looked at 3 sets of high pick and roll with AD and LeBron to see it's stunning and absolutely impossible to stop. Just like the Clippers, Lakers will be looking at this season as a long play. Small victories and leaps and good health and rest until crunch time. Iguoadala will be a Laker shortly and will certainly add more ball handling and bench fortification. I'm in, regular season won't show but who wants to see this in the playoffs?
6) Blazers - They are all in, going over the tax to bring in Whiteside/Bazemore and retaining Rodney Hood. The strongest back court in basketball and a returning Nurkic (eventually) is more than enough to get this team in the middle or top of West by seasons end. I think some of the pundits are lulled by Blazers regular season success and postseason failures, but they still made a leap last year, added pieces to the core and have excellent coaching. I think they, at the least, maintain their recent success.
7) Warriors - Not betting against the boys. Steph and Dray just have too much experience, too much moxy to not figure this out. I also believe they view this season with a huge chip on their shoulders, knowing that they cement a certain level of both of their historical significances by cracking a stacked Western conference without Klay or KD. I like the fit of D-Lo, especially giving Steph the opportunity to get off ball and let someone else create a shot, an integral part of the use of KD. Expect Looney’s “hey, I’m pretty good” season to the masses, kid has good feet and a great sense of the court, should fill the minutes nicely. Back to playoffs for the Dubs.
8) Kings - Perfect setup for Kings to take their jump. Fox and Bagley are nowhere near their ceilings and primed to take another jump. Hield is a perfect perimeter complement with no one hitting more 3’s in NBA in recent memory other than Steph, now contract tension over and can go in with clear head. Additions of Ariza and Joseph went under looked, I always view the best breakout recipe to mix young talent with strong floor and locker presences. Vlade finally not gonna look like a heel and Kings become NBA darlings.
9) Pelicans - Hard to say the playoff hopes of a team would already rest on a rookie, but with the west so tight, I can’t imagine Zion’s 2 month absence recovering from knee surgery will tip the scales in the right way. It’s a highly talented and interesting team but this is too big of a hit to get through the West. They are must watch basketball, appearing on national games 11 of first 20 games. Watch ESPN start the Lonzo Ball hype up again in order to retain viewership. Will begin…tomorrow.
10) Wolves - I like this team, they’re solid and the pride of New Jersey, Karl Anthony Towns seems to be primed for another strong season, taking on inside/out and ball handling duties and being full focal point. A healthy Covington provides a much needed presence they have not had. The problem is the 2-3 spot, Wiggins is the most frustrating player in the NBA, every time he shows a flash and then disappears for the next 15 minutes. Okogie nice player but has offensive deficiencies, they drafted Culver to help there but he’s still too green. Sorry KAT.
11) Spurs - 22 straight playoff appearances, a streak unparalleled in the NBA with Blazers and Raptors having 7 straight showings. Well, the time has come. I’ve bet against Pop and co. before, and it didn’t pan out well, but this time it’s too hard to see. They play an antiquated style that could work, if they had the interior presence to make it work.
12) Mavericks - Excuse my lack of trust in the Unicorn, but I’m from the NY area and drank the kool aid too many times already. He is fantastic, and looks great in the preseason….BUT, he hasn’t played meaningful minutes in almost 18 months now, and with his history, I can’t imagine heavy minutes, and if they run him hard, he’ll be on the couch by January. Doncic is must watch hoops and this team should have some really exciting moments, but still a couple pieces away.
13) Thunder - This is a surprisingly nice looking roster for a team that just “blew itself up”. Paul seems to know he’ll be there all season and embracing the task at hand, who should benefit upcoming star Shae Gilgeous Alexander the most. Complements of Adams and Gallo and Paul should keep this team in a lot of games. But in reality, with what they’re holding, I think front office would be super bummed if they went near the playoffs. Good thing West is too packed and they won’t crack the standings after a couple months.
14) Suns - First time in years I look through the Suns roster and go “Huh, not so bad”. The fact that being filled with NBA rotational players is an anomaly for the Suns is a big part of the problem. Ayton was great last year and highly over looked, kid shows flashes to be the real deal and Booker is an all star caliber player. Rubio has tons of faults, but he can run an offense and get the ball in the right place. I see some improvement, but they just have SO much to prove.
15) Grizzlies - They are doing their rebuild right and have very talented core pieces in Jackson, Morant and Clarke. But they are awfully far away from competing. They should cap all 3 of the aforementioned minutes and make sure no one drives themselves into the ground in a meaningless season. Back to the top 3.
Playoffs/Awards:
Eastern Conference Finals; Bucks/Sixers
Eastern Champion: Bucks
Western Conference Finals: Nuggets/Lakers
Western Champion: Lakers
Finals Champion: Bucks
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
6th Man: Spencer Dinwiddie
Defensive Player: Anthony Davis
Rookie of the Year: Ja Morant
Coach of the Year: Steve Kerr
Most Improved: Bam Adebayo
Executive of the Year: Elton Brand
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